Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.348191 4.004748 4.736938 5.611217 6.623806 7.756654 9.116820
2025-04-27 2.373489 3.245254 4.331729 5.771884 7.615553 9.880098 12.853263
2025-05-04 1.801677 2.765880 4.086769 5.995916 8.645641 12.148486 17.075044
2025-05-11 1.363001 2.324209 3.757068 5.990541 9.311733 13.980679 20.929407
2025-05-18 1.015107 1.911979 3.358554 5.774547 9.596185 15.267588 24.132771
2025-05-25 0.754210 1.563678 2.970924 5.477615 9.673858 16.213073 26.891430
2025-06-01 0.598081 1.353874 2.759842 5.411576 10.075748 17.656573 30.505105
2025-06-08 0.478975 1.180349 2.572109 5.341711 10.441313 19.054772 34.153118
2025-06-15 0.424996 1.125504 2.592792 5.644943 11.478427 21.641846 39.942999
2025-06-22 0.355465 1.016481 2.482272 5.675103 12.016127 23.418354 44.516193
2025-06-29 0.296617 0.915374 2.366375 5.671168 12.479974 25.095467 49.043032
2025-07-06 0.247396 0.823618 2.251222 5.646554 12.892703 26.706261 53.569037
2025-07-13 0.231416 0.819616 2.343022 6.093565 14.323795 30.367604 62.160282
2025-07-20 0.202687 0.770780 2.318224 6.278855 15.243966 33.157320 69.397160
2025-07-27 0.180607 0.735160 2.319527 6.524707 16.320984 36.344871 77.628650
2025-08-03 0.151988 0.668127 2.223456 6.520616 16.851097 38.494466 84.038950
2025-08-10 0.120976 0.580117 2.048418 6.288517 16.837537 39.536628 88.364203
2025-08-17 0.093703 0.493279 1.853951 5.968675 16.574522 40.027620 91.616865
2025-08-24 0.077571 0.443366 1.758878 5.897544 16.890471 41.765144 97.514575
2025-08-31 0.064158 0.398539 1.668367 5.822233 17.184226 43.474172 103.468785
2025-09-07 0.059857 0.394383 1.714058 6.149166 18.527580 47.609216 114.794135
2025-09-14 0.051346 0.365034 1.664109 6.181678 19.113581 50.079349 122.717489
2025-09-21 0.043614 0.335455 1.605532 6.177438 19.601520 52.361579 130.381979